Taking Stock Of The “Newest” Normal

From a business planning perspective, SHOT Show 2025 arrived at the perfect time for our industry.

“Uncertainty” was the theme of business leading up to Election Day. In the 77 days between Nov. 5, 2024 and the opening morning of SHOT Show (Jan. 21), the industry has been able to significantly reset expectations now that President Trump’s second term is up and running.

What We Can Expect

Fear-based buying will be down (except in states with an anti-firearms tilt), which will invite innovation and promotional pricing to drive interest from consumers. This is certainly the case in the short term, and perhaps — barring another seismic event — for the next four years.

President Trump didn’t waste much time demonstrating his support for the Second Amendment and our industry by signing an executive order Feb. 7, less than 20 days after his return to office. In a fact sheet accompanying the president’s signing of the “Protecting Second Amendment Rights” executive order, the White House stated it would “[end] the attacks on law-abiding gun owners and gun businesses.”

After four years of being labeled “the enemy,” facing a so-called “zero-tolerance” policy from the ATF and numerous examples of financial discrimination, it’s a swift, refreshing shift in policy.

And, even though our industry is likely to experience a contraction in sales this year, there’s significant encouragement thanks to these changes at the federal level of government. This was certainly one of the primary sources fueling the boisterous mood on display at SHOT Show 2025.

“What we are seeing from guests we’ve met is there are still many people looking to get into the shooting sports!” observed Karen Butler, owner of SLG2, in reaction to SI’s online coverage of SHOT Show. “I think the reason for not purchasing has been budgets. If the economy turns around as expected, we’ll see an uptick — not a slump!”

There is some uncertainty as to how the market will react to President Trump’s recent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Everytown for Gun Safety heralded the possibility of rising gun prices in recent social media posts with a closing remark of “things aren’t looking good for the gun industry.” 

Call me an optimist, but I disagree … our industry is arguably in a healthier position now than four years ago.

Are You Doing This?

Noted earlier in this issue (and even in coverage of SHOT Show last year), Rob Southwick’s assertion that companies need to 1) remind customers to go out and shoot; 2) innovate to drive sales; 3) tell their brand stories effectively; and 4) better understand and welcome their “new” customers is vital for success. 

In some ways, it’s helpful 2024 wasn’t marked by intense fear-based buying, as it was in the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election. By and large, businesses were more conservative with inventory planning. Customers, too, weren’t as active in the market. 

So, without a significant drop-off, businesses should be in a better condition to reaffirm connections with customers. (As opposed to being distracted with “rightsizing” or blowout sales to shed excess inventory.)

Dealers, make sure you’re actively participating in places where your customers are already. In a recent story on e-commerce tips, H&H’s Tim Shoopman shared what drives most traffic back to the store’s website. 

“The visual is definitely the most important part,” Shoopman affirmed. “We got the highest amount of clicks on our ads with on-range photography — still images of shooters on the firing lanes.”

This relates to Southwick’s first point above: if you’re a range operator, remind customers your range is open and ready for business — images of customers having fun on the range is relatively simple, and will do wonders. Or, if a particular hunting season is on the horizon, tee up online guests with images of their favorite game and let them know of an upcoming sale.

By the way, each of these examples has nothing to do with self-defense or fear-based buying. Fostering a joy of the shooting sports and hunting will be vital for the long-term stability of our industry — especially now.

Accentuate The Positive!

Using SHOT Show 2025 as evidence, there’s a general sense of excitement around our industry. Innovative individuals and brands are viewing this “new” market as one ripe with opportunity.

Before you scoff at more optimism, I wanted to call attention to this month’s Best Practices column. I hope you read it — it’s from the June 1962 issue of SI’s predecessor, Shooting Goods Retailer, and still speaks to business owners today.

Before landing on “‘You’ Is The Word For Selling,” I was tempted to select another story from 1962. In the July issue of that year, long-time contributor Dick Miller’s “Selling The Shooting Sports” column had a perspective that mirrors my outlook on things: unapologetic positivity. (Online readers: We teased this in the printed issue, here is the published version.)  

Miller notes the song “Ac-Cent-Tchu-Ate the Positive” — written by Harold Arlen and Johnny Mercer in 1944, later recorded by Bing Crosby, Perry Como and others over the years — likely wasn’t written for shooting goods retailers, but it “gave us some good and much-needed advice.”

In a tale of two stores, Miller highlights a conversation he had with one business owner who lamented a dwindling market, while another was focused on growing his business — rather than worrying about it.

Miller writes, “He [the second dealer] felt that there was business to be done, and he was doing it. Sure, he agreed, he might do more business if certain conditions did not exist, but his goal was to get his share of the business that was to be done, and he was doing that.

“In a few words, he was accentuating the positive, and eliminating the negative from his thinking.”

Closing his article, Miller challenged dealers to change their way of thinking in what was a down market at that time.

“What about you, Mr. Shooting Goods Retailer? Are you doing business by accentuating the positive, or are you sitting in a chair behind the counter, giving out negative pronouncements on everything from motherhood to Christmas?

“Now that this column is written, I suddenly remember that it is directed at the wrong people. The shooting goods retailer who regularly reads this magazine would not be guilty of negative thinking. I apologize.”

Six decades later, I couldn’t agree with Miller’s assertion more; this mindset will be good for business owners this year, and every year.

If there’s one takeaway from this issue, let it be there’s opportunity available to those who are open, adaptable, enthusiastic and welcoming to customer of all kinds who walk in their doors. 

Read More of Shooting Industry’s March 2025 Issue Now