Has There Been
A "Trump Slump" This Year?

There was the well-documented “Trump slump” that occurred during President Donald J. Trump’s first term in office, with the firearms industry seeing falling revenues, lower stock prices, and even reduced demand. That wasn’t really surprising, as it was repeatedly said that former President Barack Obama was the best gun salesman the industry could have wanted — at least until Joe Biden entered the picture.

It is true that gun sales historically surge when consumers fear that a Democratic administration will pass strict gun control laws or assault weapon bans, and this belief is based on the then-President Bill Clinton doing exactly that with the passage of the Federal Assault Weapon Ban. This decade-long law prohibited the sale of certain semiautomatic firearms and large-capacity magazines. The law expired in 2004, but there remains a concern that it could be implemented again.

That all changed after the election of 2016 and major firearm producers reported significant drops in revenue. With President Trump now in his second full year in office in his second term, the question is whether the Trump slump is back, but also how other factors, including stubborn inflation, high energy and food prices, and the upcoming midterm elections, have impacted sales this time around.

Summer Slowdown is Normal

Retailers across the country were all quick to suggest that there is always the usual summertime blues, but there was also some sentiment that 2026 has been slower than 2025.

“We are in the midst of a typical summer slowdown, combined with high fuel costs that are slowing down typical sales during this time of the year,” acknowledged Daniel Mitchell of Sporting Systems and Minuteman Ammo in Vancouver, Washington. “Fuel prices, food prices, and uncertainty inhibit customers’ disposable income. The rise in prices of firearms and ammo is also a direct impact on the total sales.”

Mitchell, who also runs the Washington Civil Rights Association, told Shooting Industry that the new permit-to-purchase law, which was signed into law earlier this year, could drive sales online and across state borders.

For Some, 2026 Has Seen an Increase in Sales

Instead of a “Trump slump” in 2026, Matt Sproul, the director of marketing at Shore Galleries in Lincolnwood, Illinois, said the gun shop and training range has seen a slight uptick in sales over last year. Still, there are some issues that remain constant.

“State-level firearm restrictions, and a lack of disposable income due to inflation, unemployment, etc., are affecting sales,” Sproul told Shooting Industry.

The story was the same over at Trojan Arms in Manassas, Virginia, where the first half of 2026 saw stronger-than-usual sales. Even as July has been the slowest month of the year, shop manager Joe Jackson said residents in the Old Dominion State are still exercising their Second Amendment Rights, with handguns outpacing long guns by a wide margin.

“We’ve seen stronger sales for handguns, including concealed carry firearms that can be carried with lighter clothing,” Jackson explained. “Long guns usually pick up in the fall with hunting season.”

Two Views From the Literal Heartland

Two shops in Ohio, both in the Buckeye State capital and largest city of Columbus, had slightly differing views on the current state of sales.

Eric Delbert, executive officer of L.E.P.D. Firearms, Range & Training Facility, told Shooting Industry that sales were down overall.

“It has been slower than it was during the past four years,” Delbert explained, noting the days when Joe Biden was in the White House. “The only thing that has seen a marked increase was suppressors. That market has exploded since January. The AR platform is also selling, and there are also new people looking to buy one.”

He further said that the market conditions haven’t been good for some of the competing shops, with a couple having gone out of business.

One shop that has survived the downturn is Smoke & Barrel Gun Club, which is noteworthy in that it is a woman-owned and operated shop.

“I don’t believe there is a slump this year,” said Eboni, Smoke & Barrel’s owner, who is also a military veteran. She has catered to the female market, adding, “We’ve seen a spike in women customers, and that’s a strong market for us. I’d like to see more of that in the industry.”

If the AR and suppressor customers are across town, Eboni expressed she’s been happy to see an increase in Taurus and SIG Sauer, but admitted that Glock sales were down.

Both shops said the end of summer and cooler weather will bring out the hunters.

“Once we get into hunting season, we expect long gun sales to pick up,” Eboni added.

The Midterms Could Matter

Across the country, it is hard to escape that the midterm elections are less than 100 days away, and this year’s is expected to be the most expensive on record. Ultra-wealthy contributors—including George Soros, Elon Musk, and Jeff Yass — have already poured billions through super PACs and political committees early in the cycle.

Current polling shows that Republicans still hold an edge on gun policy, but it is unclear if that will help the GOP come November.

“The political seasons always increase concerns about the future of new gun laws, or the courts moving back towards ends-based decisions, rather than on a prima facie constitutional basis,” said Sporting Systems’ Mitchell in Washington. “This season will be no different.”

This election cycle, the anxiety is now at the local level rather than who is in the White House for the next two years.

Back East at Trojan Arms, Jackson said some residents are already expressing “voter’s remorse” for sending Democrat Abigail Spanberger to the governor’s mansion last year.

“Everyone has to stay diligent to ensure their rights are protected,” Jackson told Shooting Industry.

In the Land of Lincoln, Sproul expressed similar concerns but was cautious about whether that will result in stronger sales this fall. “Federal pushes for gun control are less concerning than state-level implementation,” he noted. “Even during the height of the most recent presidential election campaign, we did not see significant panic buying, especially from the established gun owners.”

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