Picking Winners
A “winner” right out the gate when it debuted at the end of 2024, the Ruger RXM
line has already expanded to include a threaded barrel SKU. (Image: Ruger)
New firearms and accessories are constantly being introduced. How does a dealer pick potential best sellers before investing their hard-earned money in inventory?
There are several indicators to look for. Why try to predict at all? The easiest course of action is to take a wait-and-see approach. Are customers coming in asking for the new item? Have you come to realize the new item is gathering cobwebs on other dealers’ shelves, or flying out the door so fast they can’t keep them in stock?
Those dealers have done the local research for you … but at a cost. Their sales could have been your sales!
So, how do we look into the future? None of us have a crystal ball. We do, however, have our own experience, and have learned to correlate certain things with successful new product introductions and can make reasonably good predictions of how the new introduction will be taken by his customer base.
One Example
By all accounts, the Ruger RXM 9mm pistol is selling well. It was easy to predict. Here is some of the handwriting that was on the wall as soon as it came out:
Proven brand. Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. has been a trusted name in the gun world since 1949. They build guns that work. The pistol was produced in cooperation with Magpul, a hugely successful and popular manufacturer. Two proven brands together.
Proven format. Externally, the RXM can be considered a clone of the wildly popular GLOCK 19.
Exciting new features. Inside, the RXM has a modular FCU (fire control unit) that has captured the imagination of the handgunning public since the introduction of the SIG P320.
Low price, high value. Since that first “Luger-lookin’” Ruger .22 pistol in 1949, Ruger has had a reputation for high value for the dollar. The brand is always on the best-buy list. There are other GLOCK clones that undersell the original GLOCK, but none with the brand recognition of Ruger.
Publicity. The RXM was on numerous magazine covers. It was a hot topic on the online gun forums. The firearms media sold the hell out of it. Virtually all the commentary by actual users was positive, which leads us to …
The product works. When I tested the RXM for GUNS Magazine, I liked it well enough to purchase the test sample. Excellent sights. Good trigger. Felt great in the hand. Accepted GLOCK 9mm magazines already in the hands of so many gun owners. What was not to like?
New & Different
How do we spot a best-selling trendsetter? It’s gonna be about the features, the image — the niche of something new.
Smith & Wesson introduced its SHIELD line of polymer-frame subcompact pistols in 2012. At its introduction, I told their head of pistol manufacturing, “My God, the trigger is better than your full-size M&P (at that time, the Gen 1).” He smiled back, “Yeah, I know.” I said, “You’re gonna sell a million of ’em.”
In fact, S&W SHIELD sales hit a million units in record time. Why?
Something different – and desirable. Small, light, thin yet in 9mm and the then-popular .40 S&W, later in .45 ACP, and remarkably light in recoil for all three calibers.
As mentioned earlier, a recognizable brand name associated with high quality.
And, they worked.
A True “Game Changer”
Another game-changer design followed from another company half a decade later. SIG SAUER introduced the P365 in 2018. It was an instant hit and quickly reached seven-figure sales count. Why?
A recognizable brand name associated with high quality. Hmm … might there be a pattern emerging?
Something different and desirable. SIG’s Phil Strader is credited with a “stack and a half” magazine design that created a pocket-size 9mm pistol with a 10-round magazine, and only slightly larger with longer, higher-capacity magazines. This feature has been widely copied since. It took advantage of two trends at once. On one side, a disturbing number of states had passed 10-round magazine limits, and it was just plain irritating to free gun owners to have to put only 10 rounds in a pistol designed for 15 or 18.
If they were going to be stuck with that, they’d at least get the easier carry and concealment of the relatively small P365. And for “free states” without magazine capacity limits, the P365 was still holding more rounds than anything else its size at the time. By 2018, police departments were already switching from larger calibers to 9mm, in part for their higher capacity and easier “shootability.” The P365 was somewhat on board with that trend, too.
Good value. The P365 was reasonably priced. It had an excellent trigger pull. The big, high-visibility “X-ray” sights were simply outstanding. The little P365 was easy to shoot well. I taught a class with my test sample and in the qualification demonstration, it shot a perfect score with a group I’d have expected from a full-size service pistol. Serious shooters flocked to the gun. You know the rest: The P365 is still a top seller years later, and has spawned the Slimline GLOCKs, Springfield Hellcats and S&W’s SHIELD Plus to compete with it.
None of us has a crystal ball. I certainly don’t. But we can identify the above elements that signal a best-selling defensive firearm on the horizon and allow a dealer to cash in on its popularity early.
