The People Have Spoken

“We the People” have spoken — and spoken resolutely.

Just like that, we have a brand-new market. A historic night brought an overwhelming victory for our industry in both the presidential election and U.S. Senate races. (And, it could be even more decisive, as the race for control of the House of Representatives is coming down to the wire.)

Against all odds — two assassination attempts, a felony conviction and the fallout from January 6 — Donald J. Trump will be our nation’s 47th president (and the first since Grover Cleveland to be elected to nonconsecutive presidential terms). It’s a cliché we’ve heard countless times over the last few years, but it carries a lot of weight: We really are living through history these days.

Instant Reactions

This election was dubbed — by both sides — “the election of our lifetime.” And, as far as our industry is concerned, our side won. We wanted to share some instant reactions from around the industry — and the inherent challenges of no longer being in a fear-based market.

According to NSSF, the number of first-time gun buyers since 2020 equals the population of Florida (22.3 million). In an article published earlier this year on NSSF’s website, NSSF Manager of Public Affairs Matt Manda stated, “One thing’s for sure. Those Americans can make a difference on Election Day.” And make a difference they did.

NSSF President and CEO Joe Bartozzi hailed the dynamic coalition that contributed to President Trump’s second term.

“The broad and diverse coalition of voters that turned out to re-elect President Trump is absolutely consistent with the broadening demographics we in the firearm industry have witnessed among the gun-owning community over the past four years. It is certainly a welcomed expansion,” he said.

Alan Gottlieb, chairman of the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms, celebrated the voters who made a difference on Election Night: gun owners.
“America’s gun owners saw the threat of a Kamala Harris presidency and took action,” he said. “Millions of ‘gun voters’ turned out to reverse the nation’s course on firearms rights, and keep Kamala out of the Oval Office.”

Kenyon Gleason, NASGW president, views the election results through a “two sides of a coin” lens.

“There’s a lot to consider in the shooting sports market about the impact of the Trump victory and return to the White House,” he said. “On the one hand, it’s good for the Second Amendment as a whole. But in terms of sales, it’s hard to say what this will do. It could flatten sales because the fear of losing our rights has diminished, but if the economy grows, people should have a lot more confidence in their future and should be making more money to buy shooting industry products.”

NSSF’s #GUNVOTE initiative proved to be especially effective this election cycle, according to Larry Keane, NSSF SVP for government and public affairs.

“Through our record-setting #GUNVOTE campaign, NSSF successfully encouraged tens of millions of gun owners to register to vote, educate themselves on the issues and vote on Election Day,” he said. “NSSF looks forward to the end of the Biden-Harris ‘whole-of-government’ attack on our industry. Democracy won last week.”

Short-Term Impact

Jacquelyn Clark, co-owner of Bristlecone Shooting, Training & Retail Center in Lakewood, Colo., is forecasting a stronger market for the time being.

“The biggest impact we’ll see is the positive effects of a strong economy on the recreational shooting industry. I’m not expecting another ‘Trump Slump’ — it seems like dealers were wary of that possibility this go-round and didn’t needlessly stock up,” she noted. “Some of that was due to the fact we saw the least amount of pre-election buying compared to the past few election cycles. My perception is the American people are ready for a strong economy and some much-missed discretionary spending in the coming year, which we’ll then see extra dollars coming in.”

Likewise, Southwick Associates Vice President Nancy Bacon predicts renewed enthusiasm and proximity to the holidays could provide a short-term boost in sales.

“We anticipate firearm sales to continue the normalization that has already begun, recognizing there are more gun owners now than there were going into the first Trump presidency, and economic concerns may be waning,” she said. “Consumers who have been on the sidelines may feel more comfortable purchasing now after the second interest rate cut and post-election euphoria anticipating a better economy. This growing optimism will likely create an uptick in sales through the holiday season.”

However, Mark Gore, president and owner of Black Wing Shooting Center in Delaware, Ohio, contended uncertainty would continue to impact business planning.

“These election results come with uncertainty about future demand and pricing (due to proposed tariffs) in the firearms industry,” he said. “It’s very likely retail demand will be flat or down, but the pandemic-era addition of millions of new gun owners should help to provide a level of stability.”

Gore shared what will separate successful stores and ranges from unsuccessful ones.

“Our business plans to continue focusing on the entertainment and experience side — ranges, events, outings, product launches — and less on an uphill attempt to drive growth in retail firearm sales,” he said. “Growing the sport by bringing in new shooters and gun owners will be the key to success.”

Long-Term Outlook

Given the vast differences in policy between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the industry was preparing for a worst-case scenario. Thankfully, those plans can be shelved.

It should go without saying: The long-term impact of a second Trump presidency will be far-reaching for our industry.

“We are gratified the American people elected a President who will respect the Constitution, including the Second Amendment, as well as respecting the rights of tens of millions of law-abiding firearm owners, hunters and recreational sport shooters,” NSSF’s Bartozzi said. “Likewise, we know President Trump appreciates the hundreds of thousands of well-paying jobs and the billions of dollars in economic activity the firearm industry brings to America.”

Ava Flanell, SI contributing editor and owner of Elite Firearms & Training, highlighted President Trump’s power, as president, to appoint federal judges. (With the Senate in Republican control for the next two years, this will prove very important.)

“I’m happy to see President Trump won a second term. We have already seen many good judges appointed by him in his first term that have helped overturn unconstitutional rulemaking by the ATF,” she said. “More conservative judicial appointments will help ensure the firearm industry can continue thriving because our Second Amendment rights will be protected.”

It’s not all rosy, though. Bacon, of Southwick, predicts state-level threats will rise.
“President Trump’s victory for a second term will alleviate fears of more federal firearm restrictions, but we expect states will continue to push their own restrictions creating pockets of fear buying,” she stated.

One example, Colorado has been a recent hub of activity for anti-gun/industry forces. Proposition KK, a measure that would impose a 6.5% state tax on the sale of firearms and ammunition, passed. (At press time, with 84% of the vote accounted for, this measure achieved 54.3% of support from voters.)

CCRKBA’s Gottlieb cautioned the fight for our rights isn’t over — with anti-gun organizations ready to strike back.

“In this election, the Democrats shot blanks and the voters buried their gun ban agenda,” he said. “But … the fight to defend gun rights is not over and every gun owner who helped win this battle must remember the war on gun rights is ongoing.”

Keys To Success?

“Consistency” was used by Gore above and also by one of our panelists off record, which will have widespread ramifications of its own.

In this new market, if we can find a sense of consistency — rather than extreme highs or sudden lows — it will foster greater long-term growth. Additionally, this new market will afford companies the opportunity to drive success through innovation — which will also create new pockets of interest from consumers.

What do you think will be the keys to success moving forward? I’d love to hear from you: editor@shootingindustry.com.