Jan. 1–May 30, 2021 recorded the strongest start to a calendar year on record in terms of NSSF-adjusted background checks, totaling 8,501,879. Despite being the second-most prolific June in the history of the NICS system with 1,279,300 checks, June 2021 was no match for June 2020’s total of 2,177,586 — resulting in a year-over-year (YOY) decrease of 41.3%. As a result, Jan. 1–June 30, 2020 remains the best start through the first half a calendar year with 10,292,725 NSSF-adjusted NICS background checks.
Under “normal” circumstances, a YOY decline in excess of 40% would be cause for concern, but June 2020 was a month unlike any other — marked by widespread social unrest and calls to “defund the police” centered around the George Floyd protests. Likewise, the last YOY drop to exceed 40 points was impacted by political events. Jan. 2014, background checks fell 45.8% from Jan. 2013 (970,510 from 1,790,154). President Obama signed 23 executive orders to “prevent gun violence” Jan. 16, 2013 — which then spurred a several-month run on elevated firearm sales.
For the Q2 2021, the NSSF-adjusted figure of 4,297,837 background checks reflects a 21.2% drop compared to Q2 2020 (5,451,599). However, this is the second-highest figure on record (as seen in the chart provided by NSSF, below). Dealers report sales remain brisk.
Despite YOY Drop In June NICS, Dealers Say Sales Remain Brisk
First-Time Gun Owners Still A Factor
A year ago, sales were driven by the estimated 8.5 million first-time gun buyers. Today, they’re still a prominent force — and continue to be motivated by self-defense concerns.
“We’re still seeing a lot of first-time buyers/guests. Many of them are interested in training programs, CCW courses, as well as general shooting,” noted Alex Hague, co-owner of VRA, with a location in Vandalia, Ohio and New Castle, Ind. “This has been a very busy summer for us, but I think that most people are buying for self-defense (i.e., handguns and shotguns). Sales are certainly high for this time of year.”
John Phillips, founder and president of Poway Weapons & Gear Range in Poway, Calif., shared a recent trend: the return of “seasoned” gun owners to his facility.
“We’re starting to see the ‘seasoned’ gun owners come back because they know they need to get back on the range and sharpen their skills and reacclimate themselves,” he said. “The first-time buyers are still out there, and they’re now coming in for training, which is good — we certainly need to get more of them in because there are a lot of them out there who purchased a gun in the past year.”
Phillips noted the proportion of first-time buyers to regular customers has changed significantly in recent weeks, as well.
“It’s gone from 80 or 90% purchases being done by first-time gun owners to closer to 50-50 now,” he added.
As long as President Biden continues to vilify firearms manufacturers, dealers and gun owners, sales are likely to remain brisk. One drawback to the hyper-political nature of firearms sales, according to Karl Heidmann of Freedom Arms Inc., is consumers are conditioned to only buy during these periods.
“The political rhetoric has absolutely fueled uncertainty and fear, both of which influence demand in a positive way, albeit from a negative motivation. We now have a whole generation who has been trained to buy firearms and related accessories only out of a motivation of fear and panic, and to stock up on and horde rather than to research, purchase, collect, shoot, hunt, train and enjoy being involved in the shooting sports and other shooting or gun-related activities. This is why the industry was stagnant during the Trump administration,” he observed.
Have your say: What trends have you observed at your store? Send an email to comments@shootingindustry.com.
